HORSE CONNECTIONS AND THE HAIL MARY GAMBLE

Hold Your Horses!

With the recent announcement that Johnny Rocker has been given what has to be a world record 31 rating points by the handicapper recently, I thought I would go back and look at a few horses that you could argue have been absolutely SLAUGHTERED by their connections in the last 10 years or so.

As a rule, most connections – whether owners or trainers – know the rules and hence play by them accordingly, but I thought it was interesting to see what happens to those who defy the said rules and see how they perform.

While I'm sure there have been many others, the ones I can remember are as follows. And while only the future will tell us, it would seem the likes of Territory Express and Johnny Rocker might need to certainly enjoy their recent “success” as history would prove that the good times are certainly not only against them but most probably behind them.

One only has to listen to Chris Waller to understand not only does he have the horse's best interest at heart, but he also understands the rules and then looks to manage his horses to maximize those advantages, and he does so with amazing skill. This, as a result, helps maximize his owners' earnings. When you listen to Chris, he talks about the horses having confidence and how he likes them to take little steps up the scale, which in turn builds the horse into a money-making machine. And this is only done by knowing and taking advantage of the benchmark system.

Perhaps the best trainer I have ever seen do this is Kris Lees. Some of the horses he has produced not only won eye-watering amounts of money but also done so by manipulating and understanding the rules of the benchmark system. Whether it be a Group 1 horse like Mugatoo or a limited horse, no one does it better than Kris. Even if we look at some of his country-grade inmates, they have seemingly overperformed thanks largely not only to his training ability and skill but by his skill at placing them to advantage. And getting back to the Chris Waller theory, these horses not only develop confidence but they also always seemingly overachieve.

But what happens to horses when you say, “Stuff that, I'm going for the Big Time”?

Below is a list of horses that I can think of that fit that category:

Beau Rossa: Beau Rossa was the first horse who came to mind when all the talk about Johnny Rocker first came to light this week with his rating. Trained by Will Clarken, Beau Rossa had the enviable record of 11 starts, 5 wins, and 3 placings – having won $390,465. At the time, he was rated 92, but instead of continuing to massage the horse in the right races, the connections decided to have a “SHOT AT THE STUMPS” and run him in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes. ON this day, he ran a cracking race to run second and pocket connections who were, I'd guess, on top of the world, picking up another $180,000, and surely the future was bright, right?? WRONG. Having raced the horse out of its grade, its rating skyrocketed to 107 – and then in the horse's 10 subsequent runs, it hasn’t even run in the top 3. It has won $80,000 in those 10 starts, but it must be said most of those earnings would have been “EATEN UP” in starter fees. Its biggest cheque was a $27,000 return running 7th in Ascot (yes, it couldn’t even run well in Perth!), $20,000 for Running 7th in Rupert Clarke – yes, 7th! and then $10,000 for running in the Magic Millions race (where it costs you $10k to enter). Beau Rossa had its last start in December 2023, and ran 6th, and yet somehow in the handicapper's mind, he is still a rating 98 horse. So in 3 years of racing, the horse has lost 9 ratings points (4 of them occurred recently). It's worth pointing out that the Group 1 Race where his rating exploded has since provided 5 individual winners from 108 starters – hardly the type of race that was one for the ages, and arguably you could argue it wasn’t a legitimate Group 1.

So who is wrong here? Is it the connections or the handicapper?

In my opinion, the first error was from the trainer – to have a promising horse like this – arguably before he got to Group 1 level he could have easily won another 2-3 races for connections and certainly a lot more than the $260k the horse has earned since that fateful decision. But the second error has to be with “THE SYSTEM”. I personally think connections should be encouraged to “have a go” without the worry that they will destroy their horse's future like has happened here. However, whilst handicappers are desperate to hang onto the tradition and myth that a certain race is “GOOD”, how can a horse like this race 10 future times – not get close to winning a race and still be rated 98? In a world where so much is made of animal welfare but also trying to keep connections engaged – this “SYSTEM” is doing the exact opposite. The horse is not being looked after, running it in races where it's getting its heart broken time after time, and I'd dare say if you asked connections if they knew now what they know would eventuate that they certainly might have made different decisions.

Let's look at another case:

Invictus Prince: We all remember him – he was this horse who came from Europe from left field and one day somehow turns up in a Group 1 race and runs into the mighty Winx – pushing her the whole way to win $94,000. Prior to this, he was a 17 start – 2 wins- 6 placings horse. So, an honest performer but hardly a Group 1 horse. His effort he produced in the Group 1 Winx stakes as a Benchmark 77 horse and at $151/1 running second to Winx and pockets $94,000. In 15 subsequent starts over the next 3 years, this horse went 15 starts or 1 second placing and earning just a further $56,300 in earnings. His last run was late in 2021, 3 years later running 11th of 11th in a midweek race as an $81 chance.

Do you think that one race was worth what happened for the next 3 years? I can assure you that $94,000 earned was certainly eaten up very quickly in “big race entries”.

Wild Chap: Who could forget this horse - Trained by Brett Lazzarini - a surprise winner of the Newcastle Cameron Handicap at least he won the race he was put in. Wild Chap Prior to Newcastle had 33 starts for 5 wins and 12 placings and $248,000. Since winning the $110,000- back September 2022-he skyrocketed from 79 to 95 in a handicap - Since that time he has had 13 starts for 0 wins, 0 seconds, and 1 third – earning just $42,000 - his last start was September running 6th of 10 in the Horsham Cup.

Whilst these three are obviously a “sad tale” to read about (even sadder if you are an owner), we have three horses who have been “aggressively placed and therefore punished”, all about to race over the coming weeks. It will be interesting to follow their progress as they attempt to defy the odds that master trainers like Chris Waller and Kris Lees have so successfully managed.

The three horses I talk about are:

Globe: In the Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr Yard, this inmate has had just five career starts for four wins. But it’s the placement of the horse and subsequent handicap rating that has raised eyebrows. After winning his first two starts at Pakenham, he was then put into city racing, which he handled well, and he left that race behind him with an aggressively rated BM of 73 and had career earnings of $73,000. Certainly a great start to life as a horse and owner with an undefeated record and nice money in the account. However, it was what happened next that was certainly “interesting”. Having never won a Saturday grade race, he was then thrust into a BM 100 and duly saluted, taking his record to 4 from 4 and adding another $82,500 to the account. While that is great – the horse was “hammered” by the handicapper, going straight up to a Benchmark 90. So not only did he win a race and go up 17 points, arguably the horse lost the best part of $240,000 in future earnings having skipped so many grades. Now because he is a higher rated horse, he is thrust into the deep end of Group 1 racing and in that race was beaten a lazy 32.5 lengths to run an inglorious 13 of 13. Sent to the paddock since then – only time will tell if he can defy the big ratings jump and continue to earn for his connections or if he is a horse destined for the handicapping “victim” scrap heap.

Territory Express: Trained by Paul Niceforo, having won super impressively at Kembla in a restricted provincial race, he had a handicap of 75. He was in the $1m final for the Provincial Championship and certainly looking like one to beat. But then strangely, the connections elected to take on the Group Ajax field where he flashed home again (again ran second) and picked up $56,000. Unfortunately, he also picked up 20 ratings points and skyrocketed to BM 95. Whilst he is going great, if you are thinking about horses with this rating, even his owners would have to acknowledge he doesn’t have BM 95 credentials. Therefore, going forward, this horse is almost “caste” as he will be forced to race at Group 1-2-3 level and you could argue he will struggle to win too much more, despite that “fluke run in the Ajax”. For connections of Territory Express, his big hope, thanks to the conditions of the race, is the provincial championship and thankfully for them, he has been able to win that race being thrown in under the conditions of the race being basically a Set Weights and Penalties race. But in terms of a long-term future, he certainly has to defy history and whilst I’m sure they will be full of hope, this horse has a very large mountain to climb to recoup some of that lost money the connections have unknowingly lost.

Johnny Rocker: Strangely of the lot, this bloke is the only colt – and whilst they were so close to a “big collect”, can Johnny Rocker defy the ratings and go on and at least pay his way? Time will tell, but given the lack of depth in the Mooney Valley race and now having to live with a Benchmark 107, you would suggest he looks destined to go down in history as another victim of over-ambitious connections.

Let's watch on over the next few months and see if any of these three can defy the handicapper and best of luck to the connections; they are certainly going to need it.