Protectionist Winner of the 2014 Melbourne Cup - What a Day

TRAP 1 - You Must make sure your Horse Will be In The Horse

The Melbourne Cup Potential Field in theory has 123 chances but with some basic research we can split that lot into 2 areas- Qualifield ( 60) not qualified/coming (63).

The qualified crew are now fighting to increase their rating to ensure they are in the first 24 and of the not qualifield crew ( 63 of them) they have a total of just 9 races to try and not only qualify but get their rating up

With the Melbourne Cup just eight weeks away and the nominations recently released, I thought it was a good time to assess the potential field and analyze how things are shaping up. One of the most interesting points this year is that only 123 horses have been nominated, a significant drop from last year’s 182 and the 172 the year before. Additionally, the number of international contenders appears to be much smaller than usual, and the number of overseas horses likely to travel could be the lowest on record.

Since the Melbourne Cup has a field of 24, the order of entry is crucial. We’ve analyzed the 123 nominated horses, dividing them into those that are qualified and those that aren’t. Surprisingly, only 60 of them have qualified so far and the issue is a number of them look either unlikely to take their place – making the possible list even smaller.

With weights due to be released on September 19, the chances for many horses to make the field will depend on whether they’re qualified or not. Between now and the 19th of September, there are very few opportunities for unqualified horses to improve their standing, meaning we don’t expect the list to change much. Remember once the weights come out the only way a horse can elevate their position up the order of entry is to win an exempt race ( those being the Archer Stakes Run the 14^th September- the Bart Cummings – The cox Plate or the Caulfield Cup) or win a race and get a Penalty ( generally only the Geelong Cup- Mooney Valley Cup- . Lets face it if you haven’t got a high enough handicap to start with you wont be making the Caulfield Cup or Cox Plate Field – making this list very skinny indeed in terms of win and your in races

Only 60 horses this year are qualified, including a few that have exemptions. For example, Future History secured its spot by winning an exempt race last season, and Magical Zoe won the EBOR this year, (though it was considered a relatively weak edition of the race). Last year’s Caulfield and Melbourne Cup winner, Without a Fight, is also qualified and hence exempt albeit surely is LONG ODDS to show up on race day given he hasn’t race in coming on 12 months and the race being just 8 weeks away.

Trap 2- Just Because you are a Good Horse Doesnt Mean you Will be the Melbourne Cup- make sure you can confirm its likely they will be heading this way

However, some horses in this list of 60 , such as Via Sistina,Place Du Carrosel, Serpentine, Cleveland, and Poptronic, are questionable based on current form, preferred distances, and racing patterns and one would think long odds to show up Cup day. It sounds strange but Via Sistine  perhaps the best horse in Australia is you woudl think long odds to be in the race- given the likley weight she will carry and the fact she has never ever raced anywhere close to this distance- ditto Place Du Carrosel-

This year has also seen a sharp decline in potential international runners, likely due to the trend in European and overseas markets shifting away from breeding stayers. Many breeders, including those in Australia, are focusing more on sprinters and middle-distance horses rather than the long-distance stayers traditionally suited to the Melbourne Cup. This reflects a broader shift in the global bloodstock market but may come as a suprise to some to hear that Europe is heading this way. Unfortunately if the trend continues Europe -once the powerhouse of breeding out and out stayers- could eventually become like Australia and largely irrelevant espeically if they dont arrest the sharp decline which would be a concern given their sprinting ranks are deplorable

Regarding qualified horses, Without a Fight is questionable, as the horse has reportedly been dealing with a serious tendon issue. It would be a long shot for him to run in either the Caulfield or Melbourne Cup due to a lack of preparation. Similarly, I’ve heard from my contacts that the Japanese horse Shonan Bashotto is unlikely to make the trip despite being qualified but certainly not assured of gaining a start in the order of entry ( the average trip to send a horses from Japan to Australia and back woudl be in excess of $200,000 and that s along way to come to be sitting on the sidelines and not in the race )

There are still some races where horses can secure automatic qualification, including the Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup, Bart Cummings, and Archer Stakes.. The Archer Stakes run this weekend will exempt the winner, and it’s worth noting that second and third place-getters also have a good chance of either qualifying or improving their handicap rating before weights are released.

After September 19, there will be very limited options for unqualified horses to secure a spot. There are The following races – The Mornington Listed Ansett Classic , where the winner, can meet qualification requirements. However, whether these horses are strong enough to contend in the Melbourne Cup remains debatable. Other opportunities include the Bart Cummings, Herbert Power Stakes, Moonee Valley Gold Cup, and Geelong Cup, all of which offer the first three finishers a chance to qualify but important to note most likely any of these winners would need a penalty and weight readjustment. In Sydney the races that help a horse qualify would be the Colin Stephen- The Group 1 Metropolitan – ( yes just the 2 races) . The other interesting puzzle is If we are correct and  Without A Fight does not accept it remains a huge unknown who will be given top weight also and quite likely do we see the weights raised

When placing your pre-post bets for the Melbourne Cup, it’s essential to consider whether the horse is already qualified as if its not its going to have a hell of a time trying to claw its way up the list. With such limited chances to qualify and the fact that most unqualified horses have lower ratings, they would need a significant penalty or handicap exemption to make the field. This year’s smaller pool of qualified horses—

Trap 3 - As a Rule the race is won by the progressive on the up horse who has the 10,000 metres plus of racing in their legs this prep. Beware the horse with limited race metres- in the last 15 years only 3 have won with less than the 10,000m in their legs - Fitness is key for Australias Biggest Race

Below is some very brief Stats on the big race - you will note 4 and 5yr olds ( younger horses with some 'fresheness" do well- ) and we will touch on the distance needed in their preparation later in the month with a closer look at the cup once weights are released

Stats by Barriers

• Most Successful Barrier: Barrier 5 has produced the most Melbourne Cup winners.
• Least Successful Barrier: Barrier 18 is notorious for never having produced a Melbourne Cup winner.
• Winners from Wide Barriers: Horses like Viewed (2008, Barrier 9) and Cross Counter (2018, Barrier 19) have shown that outside barriers can still be competitive.

Weights & Age Stats

• Highest Weight Carried by a Winner: Carbine (1890) – 66 kg
• Lowest Weight Carried by a Winner: Banker (1863) – 33.5 kg
• Typical Winning Weights: Most modern winners carry between 53-56 kg.
• Most Successful Age: 4 and 5-year-old horses have the most wins.

Favorites & Betting

• Percentage of Favorites that Win: Historically, only about 20% of Melbourne Cup favorites have won.
• Biggest Odds Winner: Prince of Penzance (2015) won at odds of 100-1.
• Shortest Odds Winner: Phar Lap (1930) won as a 1.73 favorite.

Gender

• Most Wins by Geldings: Geldings have won the Cup most often.
• Mares' Success: Mares have won 16 times, with Makybe Diva being the most famous.
• Colts and Stallions: Colts and stallions have also fared well, especially in the early years.

These statistics offer a glimpse into the history and prestige of the Melbourne Cup, often referred to as "The Race that Stops a Nation."

With a Gun to my Head the ones of most interest this season based on form

Overseas Horses: Vauban, Sadeyaty Sadaty , Harbour Wind- Relentless Voyager-

Local Horses: Circle of Fire, Saint George( currently I have him approx. 49^th in order of entry so he would need some help with attrition or winning and getting a exempt or Penalty )