🏇 SATURDAY RUNNERS PREVIEW
1.51pm – Port Macquarie – Race 1 – Supido Star
Her last six starts have resulted in either a win or a second placing, so it's pretty hard to complain about that. She's been more consistent than a politician avoiding a straight answer.
Unfortunately, she has found herself in an absolute cracker of a race here, with three genuine horses who look destined for bigger and better things.
The reward for being so consistent? The handicapper has decided to treat her like she's carrying the entire Australian economy on her back.
59.5kg, and that's WITH the mares' allowance!
She's only a little thing, so that's a fair old impost and I suspect she'll feel every gram of it.
I think her stablemate Putinacall and Markwell Transport will be very hard to beat, while Home Siren certainly deserves respect.
This will be a very good form race going forward, but from a betting perspective I'm keeping the enthusiasm under control.
Each-way confidence: 5/10
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3.59pm – Gold Coast – Race 2 – Talk About Layla
Our best chance of the day, although there's a fair bit of blind faith involved here!
Her first preparation was terrific and, quite simply, if she reproduces that form she should be winning this race comfortably.
Unfortunately, her last two runs haven't exactly gone according to the script.
She's a bit like that mate who was an absolute superstar at school sport, but now you only ever hear about how good he used to be.
The ability is definitely there. We just need her to remember where she left it.
If we forgive those last two performances, she's clearly the horse to beat and the one I'm most interested in backing today.
As a good mate would say , "There's a fine line between faith and stupidity, and I'm hoping we're standing on the right side of it."
WIN confidence: 7/10
🔥 BEST OF THE DAY
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4.34pm – Kembla Grange OR 4.57pm – Port Macquarie – Shuda Known
He's accepted at two tracks, but unless someone has invented a horse transporter that travels faster than the speed of light, he'll obviously only be running at one.
And to be fair, neither race looks particularly easy.
KEMBLA GRANGE
The smaller field is appealing and he gets in beautifully at the weights.
The problem is the likely tempo.
Despite winning well last start, he showed he's not really a sit-and-sprint horse. He needs a genuinely run race where he can build into it rather than having to produce a 200m burst like Winx.
Kembla looks only an average tempo, which dampens my enthusiasm.
At the odds he's still worth considering each way.
Kembla each-way confidence: 5/10
PORT MACQUARIE
This race should be run at a much stronger tempo, which is exactly what he wants.
Unfortunately, there's a big field and he'll probably find himself back in the ruck with more backsides in front of him than a queue outside Centrelink on payday.
He'll need luck getting through them, but if the gaps appear and they run along genuinely, I think this is the more suitable race.
I like his chances fractionally better here.
Port Macquarie each-way confidence: 6/10
The horse's name is Shuda Known, which is rather appropriate because if we pick the wrong race, I can already hear what the owners will be saying!
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5.37pm – Eagle Farm – Race 7 – Queensland Cup – Chillaxing
What a terrific little purchase this bloke has been.
Bought cheaply from overseas, he's now put together five wins and five placings from 19 starts, and arguably should have won the Toowoomba Cup last start.
For a horse that didn't cost the earth, he's given his owners more entertainment than a weekend in Las Vegas, and with considerably fewer embarrassing photographs.
Today he gets another opportunity to break through at Black Type level, stepping up to what should be a more suitable 2400m.
There are, however, a couple of concerns.
Firstly, he's been in work for about as long as John Farnham has been on his farewell tour. This is his final run of the preparation, so there's always the possibility the petrol gauge is getting close to empty.
Secondly, he really wants some give in the ground.
If the rain arrives, his chances improve enormously and I'd nearly have him on top.
If it stays firm, he's one of about eight genuine chances, and at the current odds I can't get too excited.
Amplify is clearly the horse to beat, and we will need everything to go our way.
He's absolutely good enough to win, but conditions will be crucial.
Each-way confidence: 5/10