3.15pm – Randwick – Race 7 – Cherry Bombshell

Now it gets serious.

A last-start Group 2 winner, Cherry Bombshell is now one of the most valuable fillies in the country and she has trialled very well leading into this.

She comes here undefeated at her last three starts, but there’s no hiding from the fact this is her biggest test yet. It’s a hot race with chances everywhere.

Agrarian Girl looks bloody scary, while Pembrey certainly isn't turning up for the free sandwiches either, so I think the market has this pretty right.

The big positive is the inside gate. She should be able to land a couple of pairs closer without doing any work, and in a race this competitive, saving petrol is worth plenty.

She reminds me a little of the bloke who has won his first three fights at the local pub and suddenly gets a phone call from Mike Tyson — we're about to find out exactly how good she is.

She tries her backside off and deserves her chance, but today she needs to prove she's the real deal rather than just very good.

Each-way confidence: 7/10
Win confidence: 6/10

12.58pm – Doomben – Race 10 – Rising Pacific

A winner of nearly $380,000, which takes you a bloody long way on the bus!

Unfortunately, earning that sort of money means the handicapper eventually works out who you are, and Rising Pacific has certainly found his way up the grades.

There are some serious horses to beat here. Anemacore, Express Payment and Cunnamulla Fella all arrive with strong ratings, so nobody is handing us the trophy on the way into the mounting yard.

The big positive is the firm ground. He desperately wants it and, thankfully, that's exactly what he should get.

My slight concern is the race shape. He's really a 2000m horse masquerading at this trip, so we'd love them to put the handlebars down early and make it a proper staying test rather than a sit-and-sprint.

An old friend of mine comes to mind with his saying

“We need them to go faster than a teenager who's just been told his girlfriend's parents aren't home.”

If they roll along and make it genuinely run, his chances improve enormously. If they crawl and sprint home, we'll probably be looking for someone to blame — and as usual, the jockey is conveniently positioned for that job.

He's absolutely capable of winning, but there's enough quality opposition here to keep the confidence levels sensible.

Each-way confidence: 5/10