Stakes Day Preview
Some Big Names step out today and a few worth following in the future
## 1.00pm – Rosehill – Race 2 – DUVANA
Here's a horse we bought for loose change who has now won $184,000. At this rate, he's doing a better job of managing his finances than half the country.
He's a genuinely handy horse and resumes here for a stable that generally has them ready to go first-up. Unfortunately, whoever drew the barriers appears to have mistaken Duvana for a taxi and decided he should take the scenic route.
He's drawn wide, maps wide and at Rosehill that's about as appealing as getting a middle seat on a Jetstar flight between two blokes who both played front row.
The one positive is that he gets back anyway, and with the rail in the true position, I suspect they'll be heading down the middle late.
At $15 he's a fair price, although I reckon you'll get better on the day when the punters see the barrier and start treating him like he's got an infectious disease.
**Each-way confidence: 5/10**
Not one to mortgage the house on today, but definitely a horse to follow over the coming months. There's more money in him yet, and hopefully some of it finds its way into our pockets.
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## 1.50pm – Flemington – Race 3 – VAUBAN
33 starts, 10 wins. That's an elite record. The sort of strike rate most blokes on Tinder can only dream about.
The problem is that all 10 wins have come with decent breaks between runs. Not one on a quick back-up.
Now, I'm normally the biggest supporter of backing up a fit stayer quickly. Give me a tough horse backing up over a staying trip and I'm happier than a seagull at a fish-and-chip shop.
But Vauban is different.
He's a horse who likes his runs spaced, a big track and a race without much speed.
Today he gets the big track. Tick.
Limited speed. Tick.
The quick back-up? Well, that's about as welcome as your mother-in-law arriving with three suitcases and announcing she's staying until Christmas.
So he's got two of the three things he wants. Is that enough?
Possibly. But racing is about having an opinion, and mine is that this isn't his ideal setup.
The annoying part is that this is one of the weakest races he's contested in years. He's effectively gone from fighting Mike Tyson to having a punch-up with the bloke who collects the shopping trolleys at Woolies.
He could win on class alone, but I'm prepared to take him on.
**Each-way confidence: 3/10**
A very good horse in a very ordinary race, but at the price I'm happy to let someone else find out whether the quick back-up works.
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## 1.50pm – Flemington – Race 3 – DEFIANTLY
Here's our one-time Melbourne Cup favourite, who we bought cheaply this time last year and who has done an outstanding job since.
He was desperately unlucky not to get a run in Tuesday's Melbourne Cup. Imagine training for the Olympics for four years, getting yourself into the best shape of your life, then being told there's no room on the bus to the stadium. That's pretty much how his week has gone.
Now he finds himself in a race where he should be able to lead.
And one thing is certain: **he will be the strongest horse in this field.**
He could run this distance three times, pull up, have a cigarette, read the paper and ask the others if they're ready to go again.
Stamina isn't the issue.
The problem is whether he's got that change of speed when they sprint.
He's a diesel engine in a race that could turn into a drag race. He'll keep going all day, but if they walk for the first half and sprint home, he could find himself looking like a B-double trying to overtake a Ferrari.
What he needs is a genuinely aggressive ride. Get rolling, make them chase and turn it into a proper staying contest.
The faster they go, the better his chances.
But will the jockey be brave enough?
That's the $64,000 question, and as we've seen plenty of times, asking a jockey to make a bold mid-race move can be like asking a politician to answer a question directly. You know what needs to happen, but good luck getting it.
At $4.20, I can't get excited from a betting perspective.
**Win confidence: 4/10**
If they ride him like a proper stayer, he can win. If they turn it into a sit-and-sprint, we'll be sitting there wondering why we've spent the last three minutes yelling at the television.
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## 2.50pm – Rosehill – Race 5 – ACCIDENTIAL BID
A one-time Queensland Derby favourite and a lovely progressive horse with plenty of upside.
He's resuming over 1400m, which is a bit like asking a marathon runner to turn up for the 100 metres. He'll know what he's doing, but by the time he's found his rhythm, everyone else might be heading for the showers.
The positive is that his trials have been very encouraging, and he looks to have returned in excellent order.
I expect him to settle back, find his feet and be charging home late.
Whether he can win
at 1400m is another question, but he's got the class to make his presence felt.
He's the sort of horse you want to own. Progressive, talented and with plenty more to come. Unlike some horses I've been involved with over the years, where the only thing that progressed was the monthly training bill.
**Each-way confidence: 6/10 – BEST EACH-WAY OF THE DAY**
I expect him to run very well, but whatever happens today, put a big circle around his name for the preparation.
There's a very nice horse here and I suspect we'll be having a few enjoyable afternoons with him over the coming months.
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## 4.34pm – Hawkesbury – Race 6 – ZOUBOY
Now here's a horse with a business model I absolutely love.
He's won two from two, banked $47,000 and cost his owners precisely **ZERO DOLLARS.**
That's a return on investment that would have Warren Buffett ringing up asking for a few tips.
If only every horse worked like this. Unfortunately, for every Zouboy there's usually another one standing in a paddock eating $300 worth of grass a week and looking at you like you're the idiot.
He steps up to 1300m here, which should suit him perfectly, and from the draw he looks capable of getting a lovely run.
Yes, he's up in grade, but on ratings he's actually better than these.
The only thing we need is for the jockey to keep things simple.
And when I say simple, I mean **don't try to reinvent horse racing in the space of 1300 metres.**
Jump, find a spot, stay out of trouble and give the horse his chance.
No need for a tactical masterclass that involves going back to last, circling the field six wide and then explaining afterwards that he was unlucky.
He's already proven he knows where the winning post is, which is more than can be said for a few I've owned.
**Win confidence: 6/10**
A genuine winning chance, and if he can make it three from three, the owners might start wondering whether they've accidentally stumbled into the only profitable business left in Australia.
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## THE FINAL VERDICT
**Best each-way:** Accidential Bid – 6/10
**Best winning chances:** Zouboy – 6/10 and Defiantly – 4/10
**One to follow:** Duvana
**The one I'm nervous about:** Vauban
Five runners, five different sets of circumstances and enough potential excuses to fill a jockeys' room.
Good luck to everyone involved. Hopefully we can jag a couple of winners, because while racing is a wonderful sport, it's considerably more enjoyable when the horses are paying the bills rather than sending them.
