Internationals Dissected part 2 of 3
Today with 5 sleeps to go we look at 3 more Internationals and what they bring to the race
MELBOURNE CUP – 5 SLEEPS TO GO!
SOME INTERNATIONALS – SEPARATING THE CONTENDERS FROM THE TOURISTS
The Melbourne Cup has always attracted an interesting collection of international horses, bringing form lines from all corners of the globe.
Some arrive with genuine Group 1 credentials, some with enormous potential, and others appear to have secured a business-class flight to Australia on the back of winning a race against three goats and a retired show pony.
Today we'll have a look at three more internationals attracting interest in the market.
And as always, we're not interested in what country they come from, how fashionable their trainer is or how impressive their passport looks.
We're interested in what they've actually done on the clock.
STINGER GLASS – 57KG – $17
Twelve starts for six wins, and he arrives carrying that famous Japanese suffix, which historically has been enough to make Australian bookmakers reach for the blood pressure tablets.
Unfortunately, Japanese staying form isn't what it was 10 or 15 years ago.
The days of horses like Delta Blues and Pop Rock turning up and frightening the living daylights out of our local stayers appear to be well behind us.
And I suspect Tuesday will provide another reminder.
Now, Stinger Glass is clearly a horse with ability. You don't win six of twelve without having something under the bonnet.
The problem is that when you actually examine what he's beaten and how fast he's run, the excitement disappears quicker than a politician's promise after an election.
Let's look at the numbers.
SAPPORO WIN
His closing sectionals were:
12.00 / 11.50 / 11.50 / 11.90 / 12.20
Nothing particularly exciting there.
It was a moderately run race, and his performance ranked only the 5th-best winning effort and 38th-best overall performance on the card.
For a horse being discussed as a Melbourne Cup contender, that's hardly the sort of performance that should have anyone reaching for their wallet.
NOVEMBER – 2500M SECOND PLACING
He closed in 34.20 seconds, which sounds impressive until you examine the overall race quality.
The race rated approximately six lengths below the best performance on the card.
So again, a pass mark, but hardly something you'd be writing home to your mother about.
THE 3400M WIN
Yes, he's won over 3400m.
But some of those Japanese staying races are effectively contests for horses who couldn't get a start in the local hurdle races.
His performance was respectable, but on the clock there was absolutely nothing exceptional about it.
MY VERDICT
I have little doubt Stinger Glass will beat a few home on Tuesday.
But on my figures, he's somewhere between 14 and 18 lengths inferior to the likes of Delta Blues and Pop Rock.
That's not a minor difference. That's the sort of gap where the winner is already having his photograph taken while you're still looking for the finishing post.
Now, this isn't a vintage Melbourne Cup, and that certainly helps his chances of finishing somewhere around midfield.
But at $17, I think he's dreadful value.
Across his entire career, I simply cannot find a single performance, rating or sectional that suggests he's capable of winning a Melbourne Cup.
He's a bit like someone turning up to a Formula One race in a very tidy Toyota Corolla.
Nothing wrong with the Corolla. It's just not going to beat Max Verstappen.
For mine, the Japanese reputation is doing far more work than the horse's actual performances.
VERDICT: A very easy horse to oppose at $17.
HOPEWELL ROCK – 54.5KG – $17
Now here's a horse I find considerably more interesting.
He's trained by George Boughey, one of the rising stars of British racing and a trainer who is renowned for having his horses exceptionally fit.
So unlike a few internationals who arrive looking as though they've spent the last six weeks enjoying the airline buffet, I expect this bloke to turn up ready to race.
And importantly, he has some genuine quality.
THE FORM RATINGS
First-up: Rated 90 on his seasonal reappearance and came home only fairly. Nothing exciting, but a reasonable starting point.
Ascot: Failed, finishing around Omni Man, who has been racing on four flat tyres for most of the year.
However, Ascot is a genuine horses-for-courses track, so I'm prepared to forgive that performance.
Goodwood: Now this was much better.
He produced a career-best rating of 104.
For comparison, Goodie Two Shoes ran over the same distance and rated 98, although she came home in a sharper 34.3 seconds compared with his 35.30.
Both performances deserve credit.
He also beat Small Fry, who subsequently finished second to Point of Law in the Geelong Cup, providing an interesting form reference.
THE EBOR
His second placing in the Ebor was another very good performance, rati
ng 102.
The rider lost his whip, although to be fair he had hardly drawn it, so I'm not convinced it cost him the race.
The form is solid and confirms he's a horse with genuine ability.
THE CONCERN – 3200M
My biggest concern is his action.
He's a relatively short-striding horse, and while that doesn't automatically mean he won't stay, it can become a disadvantage in a genuinely run 3200m race.
Think about it.
If one horse is covering more ground with each stride, the shorter-striding horse potentially has to take considerably more strides to complete the same journey.
It's a bit like watching a bloke with little legs trying to keep up with Usain Bolt.
The legs are going like a sewing machine, but he's still covering less ground.
If they go slowly and sprint home, his turn of foot could make him dangerous.
But if they turn the race into a genuine staying test, I have some reservations about how strongly he'll finish.
MY VERDICT
I actually like this horse.
He's got quality, he's got a turn of foot and he's produced ratings that put him in the conversation.
Another important positive is the weight.
He's been carrying around 60kg for much of this preparation, so dropping to 54.5kg should feel like someone has taken the fridge off his back.
I still prefer two or three others from a genuine staying perspective, but he's certainly not a horse I'd dismiss.
VERDICT: A legitimate exotic chance. Include him in trifectas and first fours, particularly if the race isn't run at a brutal tempo.
GOODIE TWO SHOES – 55KG – $26
Now here's an interesting mare.
She knocked plenty of punters out of their trifectas last year, although with the benefit of hindsight she was actually one of the easier horses to find.
Why?
Because she was arguably the fittest horse in the race, arriving with approximately 25,000 metres of racing in her legs.
She was so fit she could have run the Melbourne Cup, jogged home to the stables and then volunteered to mow the Flemington lawns.
But this year is a very different story.
She's had just 10,500 metres of racing this preparation, which is a significant reduction.
She's also owned by the same connections as Trustyourinstinct, another runner in the race.
I'll leave everyone to form their own opinion on that situation, but from a pure form perspective, I think Trustyourinstinct is the stronger of the two.
I'd expect Goodie Two Shoes to race prominently.
THIS YEAR'S FORM
First-up: Beaten 17 lengths in what was clearly a pipe-opener.
And when I say pipe-opener, I mean she looked like she was still waiting for someone to turn the water on.
Second-up: Rated just 84 in a slowly run sit-and-sprint race.
Hardly the sort of performance that gets the heart racing.
Third-up: Much better. Rated 98 and came home in a very slick 34.3 seconds.
That's a genuinely good closing effort and confirms there is still ability there.
Fourth-up: Well beaten by nine lengths before getting on the plane.
Not exactly the ideal farewell performance before tackling the Melbourne Cup.
MY VERDICT
I suspect connections have a fairly clear idea of where their two horses sit in the pecking order, and from my perspective Trustyourinstinct is the one I'd prefer.
Goodie Two Shoes was beautifully prepared last year, and that enormous fitness base was a major advantage.
This year she arrives with a very different preparation, and on the evidence so far, I don't think she's going nearly as well.
She'll probably race prominently and, given her experience, I expect her to beat a fair few home.
But I'm struggling to see her reproducing last year's effort.
She's a bit like the bloke who ran a marathon last year after six months of training and has decided to enter again this year after doing three laps of the local park and walking the dog twice.
The memories are wonderful. The preparation is another matter entirely.
VERDICT: Respect her past performances, but I prefer others at $26.
