6 Sleeps To Go- Early Melbourne Cup Look
a no holds barred look at some of the Favourites for this years Race
# THE MELBOURNE CUP – 6 SLEEPS TO GO!
**Separating the genuine chances from the horses whose prices have completely lost touch with reality.**
With just six sleeps until the race that stops a nation, I thought we'd spend a little time each day looking at a few of the horses attracting all the media attention, along with a few that might be flying under the radar.
Rather than simply repeating what every racing journalist and his dog has been saying, we'll look at the actual performances, ratings, sectionals and, most importantly, whether the price represents value.
Because there's a big difference between **a horse that can win and a horse you should actually back.**
And as we'll discover, there are a few in this year's market whose prices make about as much sense as putting a screen door on a submarine.
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## POINT OF LAW – $6.50 FAVOURITE – 53KG
**THE POSITIVES**
- He's a lightly raced, progressive horse taking on a field containing more old crocodiles than the Northern Territory. That alone makes him dangerous.
- His maiden win at Newbury was nothing to write home about. He rated just **83**, with a final sectional of **35.1 seconds**, which was only fair for the day. At that stage he looked more like a Wednesday afternoon horse than a Melbourne Cup favourite.
- His second win at Newmarket was a different story. Over 2600m, on a track with a demanding uphill finish, he rated **96** and came home in **34 seconds**. That's a very good effort. He was still around five lengths inferior to the champion Rebel's Romance on the day, although he did produce a much sharper finishing sectional. This was clearly his best performance to that point.
- Then came the Geelong Cup, where they ran fantastic overall time and he improved again to a **103 rating**. He did the hard work from the front, which deserves credit. The only question is whether anyone behind him was actually interested in chasing.
**THE NEGATIVES**
- The changes to the weight allowances mean he's not as well treated as some of the three-year-olds we've seen in previous years.
- **Mentally, he's an absolute fruit loop.** He's got more nervous energy than a bloke going through airport security with a suitcase full of cash. There's a genuine chance he could run his Melbourne Cup before they even leave the mounting yard.
- He's a Northern Hemisphere three-year-old still in his first racing preparation. Throw in the international travel, quarantine and everything else he's been through, and you're asking an enormous amount of a young horse.
- The Geelong Cup form is questionable. He didn't beat a single horse arriving in genuinely strong form, and the placegetters had about as many recent winning credentials as I have Olympic gold medals.
- Then we get to the sectionals, which are particularly interesting.
**GEELONG CUP – POINT OF LAW'S SECTIONAL RANKINGS**
| Section | Ranking on the card |
|---|---|
| Last 1000m | 78th |
| Last 800m | 75th |
| Last 400m | 50th |
| Last 200m | 45th |
His final sectionals were **12.49 / 12.22 / 11.70 / 11.79 / 12.35**.
Now, these are hardly the numbers of a horse setting the stopwatch on fire. On what wasn't an especially strong card, there is nothing in those closing figures screaming elite stayer.
**MY VERDICT**
I suspect a fair bit of his favouritism comes from the Ciaron Maher factor and the excitement surrounding a progressive young international.
And fair enough. He's a talented horse with upside.
But at **$6.50**, I'm very happy to be against him.
For a Melbourne Cup horse, you ideally want one that can relax, conserve energy and switch off. This bloke looks like he'd struggle to sit through a five-minute meditation session without calling an ambulance.
Now imagine **100,000 screaming people at Flemington**.
If he handles that, good luck to him. But there's every chance he'll be sweating more than a politician being asked to explain where the missing $40 million went.
It's not a vintage Melbourne Cup, so I certainly wouldn't say he can't win.
But there are horses in this race with better performances, stronger credentials and, importantly, considerably better temperaments.
**At $6.50, he's a horse I'm delighted to oppose.**
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## JAMES J BRADDOCK – $13 – 53.5KG
**THE POSITIVES**
- Another Northern Hemisphere three-year-old, although importantly he's now into his second racing preparation.
- His maiden win was excellent. He produced a **98 rating**, coming home in **36.2 seconds**, which was actually very good for the day.
- He's been gelded, which has two significant benefits. Firstly, it prevents him from polluting the broodmare population, and secondly, it might help him concentrate on being a racehorse rather than spending his afternoons looking for a girlfriend.
- He's trained by **Joseph
O'Brien**, who is an absolute freak when it comes to preparing staying horses. That's a significant positive.
**THE NEGATIVES**
- The Epsom Derby this year was, in my opinion, one of the weakest editions we've seen in a long time. The overall ratings were poor, and he was beaten by more than five lengths.
- On paper, his most recent performance looks his best. However, dig a little deeper and several horses around him underperformed badly, which arguably flattered his finishing position.
- The biggest issue is that **he simply hasn't improved since that excellent maiden victory**.
- His career-best rating of 98 is respectable, but that's about where the compliments stop.
**MY VERDICT**
I wish his connections all the best, but at **$13, I think the market has completely lost the plot.**
He's being priced as though he's a rapidly improving European staying superstar.
The problem is, someone forgot to tell the horse.
His maiden performance suggested he had a future, but since then he's been progressing about as quickly as a council roadworks project.
There simply isn't enough substance to his form to justify his current price.
Yes, Joseph O'Brien is a genius, but even the best chefs in the world need decent ingredients.
At $13, I'd want to see a horse with genuine Group 1 credentials, proven improvement or some compelling piece of form that says he's ready to explode.
I'm struggling to find any of those things.
**For mine, he's a $26 chance at best.**
And if he wins, I'll be the first to congratulate Joseph O'Brien. I'll also be asking him whether he has any spare magic beans for sale.
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## SAINT GEORGE – $9 – 55KG
**THE POSITIVES**
- He ran second in the Caulfield Cup and backed up seven days later with a solid performance in the Cox Plate. Clearly, connections are attempting to replicate the famous three-race campaign of our own **Gold Trip**.
- He's a genuine, honest horse who gives his best and perhaps prefers firmer ground.
- Judging by the gear changes, his feet appear to be in much better condition this year. That's a significant positive for any racehorse, particularly one tackling these demanding staying races.
**THE NEGATIVES**
- He enjoyed plenty of favours in the Caulfield Cup and, given the run he had, was arguably entitled to win.
- He has six career wins, but three of those have come at 2000m. That's an important distinction when you're now asking him to run 3200m.
- He started **$26 in last year's Melbourne Cup and finished 15th**.
- His ratings and performances at 2400m and beyond consistently suggest he's vulnerable late. He doesn't appear to have the stamina profile of a genuine two-miler.
- His February 2026 run over 2500m is particularly revealing. In a very slowly run race, he still recorded a **3.5-length drop in change of speed between the 400m and the winning post**. That's not exactly the sort of evidence you want when asking a horse to run another 700m.
**MY VERDICT**
I actually like Saint George as a racehorse.
He's genuine, consistent and has given his connections plenty of enjoyment.
But liking a horse and backing it at the wrong price are two entirely different things.
**For mine, he's a genuine 2000m–2200m horse being asked to run 3200m.**
That's a bit like asking a very good 100m sprinter to enter the Olympic marathon because he's got a nice pair of running shoes.
Could he run well? Absolutely.
If we get one of those bizarre Melbourne Cups where they crawl along and sprint home for the final 200m, like the year Green Moon won, his chances improve.
But if they run a genuinely testing 3200m, I suspect the petrol light will come on a fair way from home.
And at **$9**, I think his price is completely wrong.
I'd want at least **three times those odds** before I even started getting interested.
He's the sort of horse I'd love to own, but at $9 in a Melbourne Cup, I'd rather watch him carrying somebody else's money.
**A very easy horse to oppose at the current price.**
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## THE EARLY VERDICT
| Horse | Market price | My assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Point of Law | $6.50 | Talented but mentally risky. Too short. |
| James J Braddock | $13 | Form doesn't justify the price. Should be $26+. |
| Saint George | $9 | Genuine horse, questionable stayer. Should be $27+. |
**Three horses attracting plenty of attention, but not one I'd be rushing to back at the current odds.**
Of course, one of them could win. That's racing.
But the object isn't simply to pick winners. It's to identify horses whose chances are better than the odds suggest.
And right now, I think the bookmakers have three horses here priced more on reputation, hype and hope than what they've actually demonstrated on the track.
**Tomorrow we'll look at a few more, including some whose chances
I think the market might be seriously underestimating.**
Remember, the Melbourne Cup is a 3200m race. Unfortunately, some horses don't discover that until they've already run 2800m.
**Good luck!**
