4 sleeps to Go and We Look At the Main Winning Chances
Below we touch on 3 horses and two of them are a must back now
🏆 MELBOURNE CUP – 5 SLEEPS TO GO!
PART 3 OF 3 – THE HORSES THE BOOKMAKERS MIGHT HAVE GOT VERY WRONG
With just five sleeps until the race that stops a nation, I'm becoming increasingly convinced that the Melbourne Cup market has lost its marbles.
We've spent the last couple of days looking at horses whose prices appear to have been determined by their reputations, trainers or perhaps a bloke throwing darts at a board.
Today we're looking at the other side of the equation.
Three horses I believe the market has seriously underestimated.
One is a $101 outsider who might not even get a start. Another is a $26 chance whose European sectionals are extraordinary. And the third is a horse I've been telling anyone prepared to listen could simply be too good for this field.
Because remember, there's a difference between finding the winner and finding the value.
And right now, I think we've found both.
PINHOLE – $101 – 53KG
Every now and then the bookmakers make a genuine mistake.
Not a little mistake, either. I'm talking about the sort of mistake where a bloke sells his house for half its value because he forgot to check what the neighbours got for theirs.
And this year, I think we've found one in Pinhole at $101.
He's a former English galloper who hasn't exactly set the world on fire since arriving in Australia.
But there's something about his preparation that I find extremely interesting.
Under master trainer Chris Waller, he's one of the few horses in recent years from this stable who looks set to arrive at the Melbourne Cup with what I consider a genuinely suitable fitness platform.
And that platform is built on one thing.
Miles in the legs.
The Melbourne Cup isn't a race you win simply by being fit. You need to be ELITE FIT.
It's 3200m of relentless pressure, and when the serious stayers start turning the screws, horses who haven't done the groundwork tend to disappear quicker than a politician when the questions get difficult.
Whether by accident or design, Pinhole has been given exactly the sort of preparation I love seeing in a Melbourne Cup horse.
He's fit, he's thriving and, most importantly, he desperately wants 3200m and a genuinely fast-run race.
Unfortunately, there's one rather significant problem.
HE PROBABLY WON'T GET A START!
He's currently 29th in the ballot, meaning we need at least five horses above him to withdraw, possibly six depending on the Bendigo Cup result.
And that's an absolute crying shame.
Because we're potentially going to have a Melbourne Cup field containing about 18 horses who couldn't win the race if they started at the 2800m mark.
Yet here's a horse who actually wants the trip, wants a strong tempo and has been prepared beautifully for the assignment.
MY VERDICT
If Pinhole somehow scrapes into the field, I think the $101 could disappear faster than free beer at a bucks party.
I wouldn't be surprised to see him shorten to $18 or less.
He's not the classiest horse in the race, but he's one of the few with the right fitness profile, and that makes him dangerous.
And if he misses the Cup?
Keep a very close eye on where he turns up next.
If he lands in one of the secondary races and the speed map suggests a genuinely fast tempo, LOAD UP.
This horse is absolutely flying.
VERDICT: $101 is enormous value if he makes the field. One of the most interesting outsiders in the race.
SONS AND LOVERS – $26 – 57.5KG
Now here's a horse whose price has me scratching my head.
Actually, scratching my head doesn't quite cover it.
I'm completely flabbergasted that you can still get $26 about this bloke.
He's trained by Joseph O'Brien, which is a pretty handy starting point when you're looking for an international stayer.
But it's not the trainer that has me excited.
It's the horse's preparation, versatility and, most importantly, his sectionals.
THE POSITIVES
1. Joseph O'Brien
One of the best trainers of international stayers in the world.
The bloke could probably train a rocking horse to win a staying race.
2. A preparation that screams Melbourne Cup
This horse is absolutely rock-hard fit.
There's a real sense of timing about him, and I suspect this race has been the target for the best part of 18 months.
Nothing about his preparation looks accidental.
3. His Longchamp performance was extraordinary
His last victory came in a Group 2 at Longchamp.
The race itself was slowly run, but what he produced in the closing stages was something special.
He ran his last 1000m in 57.33 seconds.
Then consider these sectionals:
Section
Time
Last 600m
33.01 seconds
Last 400m
21.83 seconds
Last 200m
11.12 seconds
On my records, those were the fastest closing 600m, 400m and 200m sectionals at that track in the last 20 years.
Let that sink in.
We're talking
about a staying horse producing closing speed that would make a Group 1 sprinter sit up and take notice.
This isn't some one-paced European plodder who needs 4000m and a swamp to be competitive.
This bloke has gears. Serious gears.
4. He's tactically versatile
He can run 3200m.
He can handle a fast tempo.
He can handle a slow tempo.
He can grind, and as we've just seen, he can sprint.
In a Melbourne Cup, that versatility is priceless.
5. The weight isn't foreign to him
He's been carrying more than 57.5kg throughout much of his career, so while the Cup weight is substantial, he's accustomed to carrying it.
THE NEGATIVES
There are only two concerns.
Firstly, 57.5kg is a serious weight in a Melbourne Cup.
However, given the changes to the weight scale, I don't consider it the obstacle it once was.
Secondly, and this is important:
If connections are thinking of flying over a European jockey, I'd much rather see an Australian booked.
I want someone who understands Flemington, the Australian tempo and how these races unfold.
The Melbourne Cup is not the ideal place for a visiting jockey to discover that our races are run differently.
MY VERDICT
I genuinely believe Sons and Lovers is one of only four realistic winning chances in this year's Melbourne Cup.
And of those four, he might just be the most adaptable.
He can handle whatever tempo unfolds, he's rock-hard fit, and his closing sectionals are simply extraordinary.
At $26, I think the bookmakers have made a serious error.
If this horse arrives in good order and draws reasonably, I would be astonished if he starts anywhere near that price.
VERDICT: One of the best value runners in the entire race. $26 looks completely wrong.
TRUSTYOURINSTINCT – $10 – 57KG
Righto.
I've been saying this for weeks, and I'm not about to change my mind now.
I THINK THIS IS THE MELBOURNE CUP WINNER.
And the fact you can still get $10 about a horse of this quality in such a weak Melbourne Cup is absolutely staggering.
For mine, he's the classiest horse in the race.
Not the most fashionable.
Not the horse with the loudest media campaign.
The classiest horse.
And the numbers support it.
THE POSITIVES
1. His second placing to Purview
He produced a rating of 102, rattling home his final 600m in 33.5 seconds.
To put that into perspective, his closing performance was quicker, and his overall rating better, than the Group 1 horses racing over half the distance on the same card.
That's an extraordinary effort for a staying horse.
2. His Curragh victory
He backed that up with another 102 rating when winning at the Curragh.
Once again, his closing sectionals were outstanding.
His final 1000m was high quality, and he ran his last 600m in approximately 34 seconds.
That's equal to, or better than, the closing efforts of sprinters on the day.
And remember, this is a horse we're talking about running 3200m.
3. James McDonald is booked
Now that's what I like to see.
One of the best jockeys in the world, and importantly, a rider who understands Australian racing and knows exactly how to judge the tempo of a big staying race.
No complaints from me there.
4. The September pipe-opener
He was given a run in September, which I think is an excellent platform leading into this assignment.
The preparation makes sense.
The fitness base is there.
The class is there.
And the jockey is there.
WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT?
THE NEGATIVE
There is really only one question mark.
What happens if the Melbourne Cup becomes an absolute slog?
We know he's comfortable at 2800m.
But if they go berserk from the start and turn the race into a brutal, gut-busting 3200m staying contest, that's the one scenario where I have a slight reservation.
However, in a normally run Melbourne Cup, I think his class will simply be too much for most of these.
MY VERDICT
I've told just about anyone prepared to listen that Trustyourinstinct is the horse to beat.
At this stage, I suspect even the bloke who delivers my mail knows who I fancy in the Melbourne Cup.
But I keep coming back to the same conclusion.
He's the best horse in the race.
He has the ratings.
He has the acceleration.
He has the jockey.
And he has a preparation that gives him every opportunity to produce his best.
In a year where the depth of the Melbourne Cup is questionable, I find it extraordinary that we're still being offered $10.
At those odds, I don't think you need to overcomplicate things.
Keep backing him at the available price.
Of course, it's still a horse race, and there are no certainties. But on everything I've seen, he should be considerably shorter in the market.
VERDICT: MY MELBOURNE CUP SELECTION. $10 IS OUTSTANDING VALUE
