11 runners Today
# SATURDAY RACING PREVIEW
### Eleven runners, a few genuine chances and a couple that might need divine intervention.
It's a big day of racing for the team, with everything from promising youngsters to seasoned warhorses, a pregnant mare and a couple whose recent form suggests they've been training
# SATURDAY RACING PREVIEW
### Eleven runners, a few genuine chances and a couple that might need divine intervention.
It's a big day of racing for the team, with everything from promising youngsters to seasoned warhorses, a pregnant mare and a couple whose recent form suggests they've been training
# SATURDAY RACING PREVIEW
### Eleven runners, a few genuine chances and a couple that might need divine intervention.
It's a big day of racing for the team, with everything from promising youngsters to seasoned warhorses, a pregnant mare and a couple whose recent form suggests they've been training at the local RSL.
As always, there's a difference between loving your horse and loving its price. I love all our horses, but I also love my money, and sometimes the two relationships aren't compatible.
Let's get into it.
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## 12.35pm – Newcastle – LUCKY LAKOTA
A nice first trial, albeit in a time that wouldn't have caused too many issues for the local school athletics carnival.
She's drawn kindly, should get a lovely run and I expect her to be strong late. The problem is that I think she's looking for 1200–1300m, and today they're only giving her 900m.
It's a bit like ordering a schooner and being handed a middy. Technically you've got what you asked for, but you're still going to be disappointed.
Dylan Gibbons is a big plus, and at $11 she's a fair price.
I suspect a few of these will be a bit sharp for her, but she should run well and improve considerably with the experience.
She's a filly who, to my eye, will be much better next preparation when she's developed a bit more strength. At the moment she's still putting the furniture in the house, but the foundations look pretty good.
**Each-way confidence: 6/10**
A nice filly with a future. Don't sack her if she gets beaten today.
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## 12.35pm – Newcastle – INSIDE PERFECTION
Righto, all you black book enthusiasts who have more horses in your black book than money in your bank account, get the pen out.
I think this filly is quality.
Her trial was more than solid, and if this race was over 1100m, I'd be going through the couch looking for loose change to have something extra on her.
Unfortunately, it's 900m.
For her, that's about as suitable as putting a tow bar on a Ferrari.
She's got ability, but I suspect by the time she gets organised and starts doing her best work, a few of these little speed machines will already be back in the mounting yard getting their photos taken.
I genuinely like her, though. She's a horse I think we'll have some fun with, and I wouldn't be surprised if she develops into a very nice filly.
**Each-way confidence: 6/10**
**BLACK BOOK HER.** If she gets beaten today, don't start writing her obituary. We haven't even got through the opening chapter yet.
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## 1.35pm – Sandown – PORTER
What a bloody good horse this bloke has been.
He's won more than $400,000 and Danny has done an outstanding job with him. He's an old-fashioned warhorse who turns up, rolls his sleeves up and goes to work.
Porter doesn't need a psychologist, a motivational speaker or a wellness retreat. He needs someone to let him run.
The entire race revolves around the jockey's internal clock.
Porter wants to go fast. If they go too slowly, he won't win. He's capable of absorbing pressure and running some very good middle-race splits, so the key is to use his biggest asset.
Trying to ride Porter quietly is like buying a chainsaw and using it to spread butter. You've completely missed the point of the equipment.
Now, the betting.
He's currently $3.20, which is severe unders in my opinion. There are more chances in this race than the market suggests.
At $3.20, the bookmakers are effectively asking us to pay for their Christmas holidays, and I'm not particularly interested in contributing to the family trip to Fiji.
**Win confidence: 6/10**
A genuine winning chance, but as a punter, I want $4 or better.
Love the horse. Don't love the price. It's a bit like going to the pub and seeing your favourite beer is $18 a schooner. You still love it, but suddenly you're looking at the specials board.
---
## 2.20pm – Newcastle – MORNINGTON PIER
A lovely, consistent horse who was given absolutely no chance last start.
He was set a task that would have required him to be part racehorse, part helicopter.
He's back on his home track, has a good trainer and gets a strong rider in the very underrated Alysha Collett.
At $14, I think he's about the right price.
The concern is the lack of speed in the race, and anyone who's spent enough time watching Newcastle racing knows that on this particular day, being back and wide can be about as productive as trying to sell ice to an Eskimo.
If the track is playing up and in, we'll need a few things to fall our way.
He's an honest horse, though, and unlike some of the characters we've owned over the years, you don't need to send him a written invitation to participate in the finish.
**Each-way confidence: 5/10**
A genuine chance at the right price, but we'll need the race and track to give us a little assist
ance.
---
## 2.20pm – Newcastle – CALTSAR
Another one of our cheap purchases who's been doing a terrific job.
He's the sort of horse who makes you wonder why people spend a million dollars at a yearling sale.
His recent runs have been considerably better than the form guide suggests.
If you're just reading the finishing positions, you're probably wondering why we've bothered putting petrol in the float. But there's been plenty of merit in what he's been doing.
Unfortunately, he doesn't look particularly well placed at the weights, and the map is about as friendly as a parking inspector on double-demerit weekend.
I love the horse. He's genuine, honest and keeps giving his owners a run for their money.
But I also have to be realistic, and today looks a difficult assignment.
**Each-way confidence: 4/10**
Would absolutely love to be wrong, but I think there'll be better opportunities for him.
He's one of those horses you want to see succeed because he gives you everything he's got. Unfortunately, the handicapper appears to have noticed that as well.
---
## 2.40pm – Kembla Grange – PONZI SCHEME
Now here's a horse who has been extremely unlucky to still be a maiden.
With a name like Ponzi Scheme, you'd think he'd have found a way to make some money by now, but apparently he's taking the name a little too literally.
The good news is that today looks a genuine opportunity to finally get that first win on the board.
Our trainer was particularly positive about his work and the gear change, and I think he's a genuine top-four chance.
Now, the price.
**$13.**
Hello, sailor.
At that price, I'm interested. Very interested.
There's a big difference between backing a maiden at $2.50 who's found more ways to lose than the Wests Tigers and backing one at $13 who's had legitimate excuses.
I think he's outstanding value today.
**Each-way confidence: 6/10**
At $13, I'm happy to have a play.
Hopefully today is the day Ponzi Scheme finally starts returning some money to his investors. It's probably the first Ponzi scheme in history where everyone involved is actually hoping to see a legitimate return.
---
## 4.05pm – Newcastle – ZAHAV
This is a horse I'm genuinely excited about.
He was an easy winner at Warwick Farm last start and the improvement from his debut was excellent.
Some horses improve from their first start to their second. This bloke improved like someone had finally taken the handbrake off.
He gets a big track, a nice draw and there are potentially a few question marks around the favourite.
He's still a young horse with plenty to learn, but there's no doubting the talent.
The progression he showed between his first two starts was outstanding, and if he takes another step forward today, there could be a few people holding tickets on the favourite suddenly developing a keen interest in the weather.
I expect him to run super.
**Each-way confidence: 6/10**
A horse with genuine upside, and one of the runners I'm most looking forward to seeing today.
He's still learning his trade, but unlike a few apprentices I've employed over the years, he appears to be getting better every time he turns up.
---
## 4.45pm – Newcastle – INFANCY
What an absolutely magnificent mare she has been for her owners.
She's been a wonderful horse, and she's now racing in foal to Anamoe.
So technically she's already got a very exciting prospect on the way, which is probably more than can be said for some of the blokes she's racing against.
But sentiment aside, we need to deal with the facts.
**Nine starts against the boys. Zero wins. Zero placings.**
Now, I'm not a marriage counsellor, but that's a fairly compelling argument that she doesn't particularly enjoy the company of males.
I'm staggered she's as short as she is in the market.
She's a wonderful mare, and nobody would be happier than me to see her win, but as a punter first and foremost, I simply cannot have her as a winning chance at the current price.
If you want to back her because you love her, that's fine. People spend money on all sorts of things they love.
I've got a shed full of evidence of that.
But from a purely betting perspective, I think she's a risk.
**Each-way confidence: 3/10**
Love the mare. Love what she's done. Love her future as a broodmare.
Don't love the bet.
---
## 4.45pm – Newcastle – LORD OF BISCAY
Well, where do we start?
He's got a lovely barrier draw.
There you go. That's the good news out of the way.
Unfortunately, just about everything else in this race is against him.
There's too much speed, the race shape doesn't suit and, most importantly, I think he's currently running around with two flat tyres and the check-engine light on.
His recent form has been ordinary.
I'm not sure whether he needs a spell, a
service or someone to plug him into the diagnostic machine, but at present he's not going well enough to be competitive in a race like this.
In my betting market, I've got him at 100/1.
And before anyone asks, no, that's not a typo and I haven't accidentally added an extra zero.
**Each-way confidence: 1/10**
If he wins, I'll be the happiest bloke on the racecourse and the worst form analyst in Australia.
There'll be no shortage of people telling me they backed him, either. Funny how that works. Nobody mentions they've backed the 100/1 shot until about three seconds after it's crossed the line.
---
## 5.05pm – Sandown – VAUBAN
A Group 1 winner, more than $2.7 million in prizemoney and a horse whose ability is beyond question.
Unfortunately, in the Melbourne Cup, the jockey gave him little more than a sore back. In my opinion, it was an ordinary ride with about as much tactical thought put into it as a bloke choosing which urinal to use at the pub.
You've got 3200m to formulate a plan, and by the looks of things, the plan was to sit there and hope something miraculous happened. I've seen more initiative from a bloke asleep in a deckchair.
Anyway, moving on before my blood pressure gets the better of me.
My concern today is very simple.
He's won 10 races, and every single one of those wins has come off a bigger break than he faces here.
Ten pieces of evidence.
That's not a coincidence. That's a bloody dossier.
If you went to court with that much evidence, the bloke would be pleading guilty before the judge had finished taking his coat off.
Vauban is class personified, but the evidence suggests he's a much better horse when fresh.
And while I'm normally a massive fan of backing up stayers, you can't ignore what an individual horse has been telling you throughout his career.
He's effectively been sending us a handwritten letter for years saying, "Give me a decent break between runs," and here we are asking him to go around again.
His class gives him a chance, but I'm prepared to be against him from a betting perspective.
**Each-way confidence: 5/10**
A magnificent horse, but not necessarily a magnificent betting proposition today.
If he wins, I'll happily celebrate. If he gets beaten, I won't be needing a Royal Commission to work out why.
---
## 5.20pm – Newcastle – DON DIEGO DE VEGA
We finish the day with a horse who I think is a better chance than he might initially appear.
The distance today is a genuine specialist range, and I think it gives him an opportunity to show something.
He paraded terribly last start in a much stronger race. He looked like he'd been dragged out of the spelling paddock, given a quick brush and told there was a race starting in ten minutes. If you'd seen him in the mounting yard, you'd have been asking the trainer whether the real Don Diego De Vega was still on the float.
If he's taken some improvement from that run, the drop in class gives him a genuine chance to surprise.
Now, for the statistic that might cause a few people to choke on their beer.
**He hasn't won in 485 days.**
Four hundred and eighty-five days!
You could have conceived a child, had the baby, celebrated its first Christmas and started discussing childcare arrangements in the time it's taken this bloke to find the winning post.
The owners have been extremely patient, and hopefully today is the day their patience gets rewarded.
I do think he's better suited here than the form guide might suggest, and he's one I wouldn't be dismissing.
**Each-way confidence: 6/10**
A genuine chance at odds.
Hopefully he can finish the day on a high and finally remind his owners what the winning photo looks like. A few of them might need to check whether their Racing NSW login still works.
---
# THE SATURDAY CHEAT SHEET
| Time | Horse | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| 12.35pm | Lucky Lakota | EW 6/10 |
| 12.35pm | Inside Perfection | EW 6/10 |
| 1.35pm | Porter | WIN 6/10 |
| 2.20pm | Mornington Pier | EW 5/10 |
| 2.20pm | Caltsar | EW 4/10 |
| 2.40pm | Ponzi Scheme | EW 6/10 |
| 4.05pm | Zahav | EW 6/10 |
| 4.45pm | Infancy | EW 3/10 |
| 4.45pm | Lord of Biscay | EW 1/10 |
| 5.05pm | Vauban | EW 5/10 |
| 5.20pm | Don Diego De Vega | EW 6/10 |
**BEST VALUE:** Ponzi Scheme at $13.
**BEST WINNING CHANCE:** Porter, but I want $4+.
**MOST EXCITING RUNNER:** Zahav.
**BLACK BOOK SPECIAL:** Inside Perfection.
**THE ROUGHIE THAT COULD SURPRISE:** Don Diego De Vega.
**THE ONE THAT MIGHT REQUIRE A MIRACLE:** Lord of Biscay.
**THE ONE THE BOOKMAKERS CAN KEEP:** Infancy at her current price.
Good luck to all our owners today.
Hopefully we've got a few winners amongst them, because with eleven runners, if we come home empty-handed, the only people having a better Saturday than the bookmakers will be the fl
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oat companies.
And remember, the beautiful thing about racing is that no matter how bad your Saturday goes, there's always another meeting on Sunday where you can make exactly the same mistakes.
