# Wine Dark Sea – The Caulfield Cup With the Caulfield Cup now just 10 days away, I thought it was
The race on Ratings is All over and you can still get $10 About the Winner
# Wine Dark Sea – The Caulfield Cup
*10 Days Out – A Look at the Market and Where the Value Lies*
With the Caulfield Cup now just 10 days away, I thought it was a good opportunity to have a closer look at the market and give followers a chance to take a position before race day.
I'll put my cards on the table early. **In my opinion, if Wine Dark Sea turns up with his overseas form, I think the race is just about over.** That's a big statement, but when you go through the ratings and compare what he's achieved against the opposition, I think there's a very strong case to support it.
The Caulfield Cup in recent years has favoured horses down in the weights, with Half Yours carrying 52kg and Duke De Sessa 52.5kg. Prior to that, however, it's generally been a good horse's race, with the likes of Without A Fight, Incentivise, Verry Elleegant, Mer De Glace and Best Solution all winning with weights ranging from the mid-55kg mark up to 57.5kg.
Given the way this year's field is shaping up, it looks a fairly open race, but I've always believed that in a handicap the key is finding the genuine weight-for-age horse who has managed to beat the handicapper. In other words, the horse with that little bit of extra class who is getting into the race better than he probably should.
The other factor worth considering is the weather, with the 10-day forecast suggesting we could be racing on rain-affected ground.
With that in mind, I've gone through the main chances in the market and looked at their ratings, sectionals and, importantly, whether their current prices represent any value.
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### Cosmic Crusader – $6 Favourite – 56kg
He's a really interesting horse and certainly ticks the weight-for-age box, being a last-start Group 1 winner with a **career peak rating of 100** on my scale.
He's won 10 races from 21 starts, which tells you straight away he's a genuine winner, and five of those victories have come on soft or rain-affected ground. Interestingly, while his Good 3 performances have still been very good, his ratings suggest he's generally **two to four lengths better when there's some sting out of the ground.**
The big question for me is whether he runs 2400m.
After 21 starts, he's only just tackled 2000m for the first time, and stepping up another 400m in a Caulfield Cup is a completely different pain barrier. Plenty of horses can look outstanding at 2000m and find the last 200m of a strongly run 2400m a very unpleasant experience.
Two runs ago, he went to 1800m for just the second time in his career and produced the following closing splits in what was a very fast-run race:
**11.64 / 11.16 / 11.44 / 11.48 / 12.10**
That ranked as the **50th-fastest last 1000m** on the card and the **70th-fastest last 200m**.
Now, on face value those rankings don't look particularly flash, but given the brutal early speed of the race, I thought it was actually a terrific demonstration of his strength. To absorb that sort of tempo and still maintain those finishing figures is a very good effort.
His last-start performance was a better platform heading towards the Cup. He chased a slightly above-average tempo and was visually dominant, running home in:
**11.68 / 11.04 / 11.86 / 12.92**
He recorded the second-fastest last 200m in his race, although his rankings for the entire meeting were only 10th-fastest last 1000m and 46th-fastest last 200m.
What we know about this horse is that he loves a genuinely fast, brutal tempo and is clearly a legitimate good horse. He can absorb pressure, handles different race shapes and doesn't need everything to go perfectly to win.
The concern is that when you see a horse slow by nearly six lengths over the final 200m, it's normally a warning sign when looking at a rise in distance. That becomes even more relevant when we're talking about a horse who has never attempted 2400m in a 21-start career.
**Overall, I'm on the fence.** He's a winner, handles all track conditions and has the class to win a race like this. With 56kg he's certainly not badly treated, especially compared with some of the other horses in the field.
*But at $6, I'd rather be convinced he runs the trip than simply hope he does.*
### Zahrann – $7 – 53kg
This is a super interesting horse. Are the stable playing ducks and drakes, or has he simply not found his European form since arriving in Australia?
When you go through his overseas performances, there are some enormous numbers, and it's not hard to understand why a massive figure was reportedly accepted for the horse.
His last win at the Curragh was equivalent to a **104 rating** on my scale, and on that occasion he ran his final 600m in **34.2 seconds**. That was approximately two lengths quicker than the Listed 1000m race for three-year-olds on the same progr
am, so we're talking about a horse who not only has some genuine class but also possesses a very good turn of foot.
His previous run at Ascot rated 99, although interestingly, on a firm surface he could only manage 36.9 seconds for his closing sectionals, which was comfortably the slowest of the day.
Go back another start to Leopardstown and he rated 94 but was again very good late, running 35.40 seconds, the fastest closing figure of the meeting.
So there's no question he has ability, but there's also a fair difference between his very best performance and what he produces on an average day.
**His Curragh run puts him right in the Caulfield Cup. His other European efforts fall well short of what I believe will be required**, and it's worth remembering that the Curragh surface can occasionally produce unusually high ratings.
Now we turn to Australia, where his best rating has been just 96.
That came in a slowly run race where he produced closing splits of:
**11.54 / 11.48 / 11.20 / 11.84**
Those figures ranked 60th-fastest last 1000m and 43rd-fastest last 200m on the card.
Nothing there really suggests we're looking at a Caulfield Cup winner.
So effectively we have a horse with one run in his last 10 starts that suggests he's a genuine top-three chance, but that performance was back in August last year.
If he reproduces that Curragh run, he's right in the finish. If he runs to his Australian form, he's going to need to find quite a few lengths.
*At $7, I think you're being asked to take a fairly short price about a horse who hasn't shown us enough locally to justify it.*
### Half Yours – $9 – 57.5kg
The Melbourne Cup has been a graveyard for the future form of plenty of horses over the years, and Half Yours might be the latest victim.
He was very good first-up off a slow tempo, particularly given the residual fitness he carried into the race, but his more recent performance in the Group 1 won by Cosmic Crusader wasn't nearly as encouraging.
He had his wheels spinning during the winter, and while there's no doubt he's a very good horse at his best, I think anyone backing him here is doing so largely on trust.
At 57.5kg, he doesn't have much room for error either.
**He could certainly bounce back, but I'm not particularly interested in taking $9 to find out. Not for me.**
### Wine Dark Sea – $10 – 54.5kg
Obviously, I have a vested interest here, but I think anyone who has followed my ratings over the years knows I don't get carried away simply because we own a horse.
The figures have to stack up, and in this case I think they stack up exceptionally well.
His last-start performance rated **106**, and he ran home in **34.6 seconds**. On the same program, a good-class field of 1000m horses ran home in 33.9 seconds, so that gives you some idea of the quality of his finishing effort.
And he won easily.
The run before that he rated 95, but there were genuine excuses, and the form out of that race has proven exceptionally strong.
Go back another start and he **won by 13 lengths, eased down, broke the track record and produced a rating of 108.**
Now, you can dress racing form up however you like, but horses don't produce those sorts of figures by accident.
What really appeals to me is that he's not your typical European stayer who needs to get back, settle and hope the race unfolds perfectly.
**He's a genuine weight-for-age horse with Australian-style tactical speed.** He can jump, take up a position and put himself into the race, which is an enormous advantage around Caulfield.
With 54.5kg, I think he's exceptionally well treated.
When you compare his peak ratings of 108 and 106 against the opposition, there simply aren't many horses in this race who have demonstrated that level of ability.
The obvious question is whether he reproduces that form in Australia. International horses don't always travel or adapt as well as you'd hope, and that's a risk you have to acknowledge.
But that's also why we're getting $10.
**If he turns up and runs to his European figures, I genuinely believe he's the clear horse to beat, and I think he should be equal favourite at worst.**
I know that's a strong opinion, but I'm struggling to find another runner in the market who has produced the same level of ratings while getting into the race with such a favourable weight.
*For mine, he's clearly the best betting opportunity among the leading chances.*
### Enfjaar – $11 – 54.5kg
Another interesting horse who has never really been considered a genuine 2400m performer overseas, although I'm not convinced that's going to be a major issue in Australia.
He produced a big **rating of 102 at Goodwood** and was very good home as well. Goodwood has a genuinely stiff finish, and horses who can sustain a strong effort
there can often find our flatter tracks a little more forgiving.
For that reason, I'm not overly concerned about him stretching to 2400m.
I do think $11 is a touch short, particularly given the fact he was never really considered a 2400m horse in Europe, but I certainly wouldn't be leaving him out.
**If he draws an inside gate, gets smothered up behind the speed and we end up with a Caulfield Cup run at only an average tempo, I could see him being a very serious winning chance.**
In that scenario, I'd be keen to include him in all the major bets.
*He's one of those horses where the barrier draw and likely race shape could make a significant difference to how I assess his chances.*
### Point Of Law – $21 – 51kg
Here's one who becomes quite interesting when you start looking at the weights.
His win at Newbury rated just 83, and he was slow home, so there wasn't much there to get excited about over 2000m.
He then went to Ascot and produced a rating of 90, but again there was nothing particularly impressive about his finishing figures.
His next run at Newmarket was a different story.
Newmarket has an extremely stiff finish in these staying races, and he produced a **rating of 96 while coming home in approximately 34 seconds.**
Admittedly, the track was firm that day and some very good sectionals were being recorded, so you have to keep that in perspective, but it was still a very good performance.
Now the interesting part is that he was carrying around 58kg in those European races and drops to just **51kg in the Caulfield Cup**.
That's a substantial weight advantage.
Obviously, you can't simply assume seven kilograms will translate into a set number of lengths, but it does give him a real opportunity to improve considerably on those ratings.
**If the weight relief allows him to produce something in the 100–102 range, I think he's right in the race.**
In fact, looking at how this year's field is shaping up, I wouldn't be surprised if a rating around that mark was enough to finish in the top three.
At $21, he looks one of the more interesting roughies, particularly if Wine Dark Sea doesn't turn up with his best form.
*He's certainly not the most talented horse in the field on exposed ratings, but with 51kg he doesn't necessarily need to be.*
### The Best Roughie? Pinhole – $51 – 51kg
With the Herbert Power coming up this weekend, we've got a race largely filled with old crocodiles who have been going around in staying races for what feels like forever.
But there's one horse in that race who I think could be a serious threat in the Caulfield Cup, and that's Pinhole.
Now, before anyone gets too excited about the $51, there's one fairly significant problem. **He's not even qualified for the race at this stage** and realistically probably needs to win the Herbert Power to get himself into the field.
So when you consider that, the $51 might actually be under the odds.
But if he does make the field, I think he's a much better chance than most people would realise.
I know that sounds strange given his fairly ordinary Australian form. To be frank, much like Zahrann, his local performances haven't been anywhere near good enough to win a Caulfield Cup.
But there's one run in England that I keep coming back to.
**At Ascot, he produced a rating of 107, and he was absolutely enormous.**
Now, Ascot is very much a horses-for-courses venue, so I always treat standout ratings there with a degree of scepticism, but what interests me most is how he produced that figure.
It came in a brutally fast-run race where the horses were being asked to sustain a serious gallop for a long way.
And when you look at his best performances, including his two Australian victories, there's a common theme.
**He loves a fast, lung-burning tempo.**
That's when he's at his best, and it's the sort of race shape you can often get in a Caulfield Cup.
His problem this weekend is that the Herbert Power is only shaping up as an average-tempo race, which I suspect will be his undoing.
But if you see this horse pop up in a staying race where they're likely to go hard early and turn it into a genuine test of stamina, I'd be very interested in backing him at what should be generous odds.
He's the sort of horse who could look fairly ordinary in three or four races and then suddenly produce an enormous performance when he gets the right conditions.
*Definitely one to keep an eye on.*
### Final Thoughts
Looking at the race as a whole, I think there are quite a few horses towards the top of the market who have some genuine questions to answer.
Cosmic Crusader is a very good horse, but I'm not convinced about the 2400m. Zahrann has the overseas form to be competitive but hasn't reproduced it here. Half Yours has the class, although
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his weight and recent form make him difficult to recommend.
Enfjaar is one I could see running a very good race with the right barrier and tempo, while Point Of Law looks an interesting lightweight who could easily outrun his odds.
Pinhole is probably the most intriguing of the roughies, although he obviously needs to qualify first.
But I keep coming back to Wine Dark Sea.
**His ratings of 108, 95 and 106 from his last three European runs are simply better than what the majority of this field have produced**, and with 54.5kg I think he's getting into the race extremely well.
The other thing I like is his tactical speed. He's not going to need a miracle ride or a race that completely falls apart to give himself a chance.
Obviously, there are still 10 days to go, and plenty can change between now and then, particularly with the weather and barrier draw.
But based on what we know today, **I think the $10 is a very good price.**
If he reproduces his overseas form, I genuinely believe he'll be extremely hard to beat, and I wouldn't be surprised if we look back after the race and wonder how he was ever allowed to start at double-figure odds.
*Hopefully, in 10 days' time, we're celebrating a Caulfield Cup win.*
No Matter what happens we at Australian Bloodstock are proud to have identified a BM 77 horse who in just 3 runs has developed into a BM113 with more to come
